The 2015 General Election Thread

[Ralph]

If Labour are doing so badly in Scotland that must mean the Tories have a comfortable lead in UK wide opinion polls, right HJ?

[kevin04]

Latest YouGov Scotland Poll

SNP 48%
Labour 27%

95% of SNP and 39% of Labour supporters think Sturgeon is doing a good job.

Sturgeon's approval rating amongst Labour supporters is -4 while Murphy's approval rating amongst SNP supporters is -54

67% of SNP voters say there is no chance they will change their minds before the election but only 50% of Labour supporters are so certain.

Overall, more than 90% of SNP supporters say it is extremely unlikely or there is no chance they will change their minds.

Bewtifaal, Beeky.

Still it's only a poll. Lots of hard work being done and to be done if the SNP are to win. Still reckon double digits is a good night for us and a jolly jig will be danced if so.

Some of these stats are terrible reading (for Labour) the further you delve in to that poll.

[Ralph]

Latest YouGov Scotland Poll

SNP 48%
Labour 27%

95% of SNP and 39% of Labour supporters think Sturgeon is doing a good job.

Sturgeon's approval rating amongst Labour supporters is -4 while Murphy's approval rating amongst SNP supporters is -54

67% of SNP voters say there is no chance they will change their minds before the election but only 50% of Labour supporters are so certain.

Overall, more than 90% of SNP supporters say it is extremely unlikely or there is no chance they will change their minds.

Bewtifaal, Beeky.

Still it's only a poll. Lots of hard work being done and to be done if the SNP are to win. Still reckon double digits is a good night for us and a jolly jig will be danced if so.

Some of these stats are terrible reading (for Labour) the further you delve in to that poll.

Déjà vu. You can have that piss up you were planning for after independence referendum.

[therealHJ]

A primer from the UK POlling Report on the Ashcroft constituency by constituency poll due to be released tomorrow at 11.00

SNP to win all but five seats if there is a uniform swing?

Scotland a one-party state?

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9194

[kevin04]

A primer from the UK POlling Report on the Ashcroft constituency by constituency poll due to be released tomorrow at 11.00

SNP to win all but five seats if there is a uniform swing?

Scotland a one-party state?

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9194

He's been hacked.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content ... s/2015/02/

[kevin04]

A beautiful Jock play on words too for Milliband's character.

MilibandFudd-150x150.jpg

He certainly is.

[kevin04]

That'd be Danny and Douglas Alexander, Mags Curran, Sarwar out, and Eck winning Gordon.

[therealHJ]

Yet another carcrash interview on Newsnight, this time Ed Balls

Apparently Ed Balls could only think of one business leader who is backing Labour's policies but couldn't remember his full name despite having dinner with him

His first name is Bill apparently!

[kevin04]

Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber :

SNP 50%
Liberal Democrats 21%
Labour 14%
Conservatives 11%

Airdrie and Shotts :

SNP 47%
Labour 39%
Conservatives 7%
Liberal Democrats 1%

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill :

SNP 46%
Labour 43%
Conservatives 6%
Liberal Democrats 1%

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East :

SNP 52%
Labour 34%
Conservatives 6%
Liberal Democrats 2%

Dundee West :

SNP 59%
Labour 25%
Conservatives 6%
Liberal Democrats 3%

Glasgow Central :

SNP 45%
Labour 35%
Conservatives 5%
Liberal Democrats 3%

Glasgow East :

SNP 51%
Labour 37%
Conservatives 4%
Liberal Democrats 1%

Glasgow North :

SNP 45%
Labour 33%
Conservatives 5%
Liberal Democrats 4%

Glasgow North-East :

Labour 46%
SNP 39%
Conservatives 4%
Liberal Democrats 1%

Glasgow North-West :

SNP 44%
Labour 38%
Conservatives 7%
Liberal Democrats 3%

[therealHJ]

I remember arguing with an old lefty mate of mine at the time about the SNP when they devolved Scotland, he told me hell would freeze over before Labour lost Scotland, it must be pretty cold right now then!

[therealHJ]

Yet another carcrash interview on Newsnight, this time Ed Balls

Apparently Ed Balls could only think of one business leader who is backing Labour's policies but couldn't remember his full name despite having dinner with him

His first name is Bill apparently!

Here's Ed Balls' carcrash

phpBB [video]

[Chris]

Al Murray's Debut Campaign Poster



http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/02 ... 04070.html

[Ralph]

A beautiful Jock play on words too for Milliband's character.

MilibandFudd-150x150.jpg

He certainly is.

[Ralph]

I remember arguing with an old lefty mate of mine at the time about the SNP when they devolved Scotland, he told me hell would freeze over before Labour lost Scotland, it must be pretty cold right now then!

The SNP's sucess disguising how badly the Conservative & Unionist Party are doing in the rest of the UK. 1992 since the Tories won a majority & their supporters are reduced to cheerleading the Scottish Nationalists. Such a sad sight for a party that used to be an election winning machine & used to actually stand for something.

[Ralph]

A primer from the UK POlling Report on the Ashcroft constituency by constituency poll due to be released tomorrow at 11.00

SNP to win all but five seats if there is a uniform swing?

Scotland a one-party state?

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9194

He's been hacked.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content ... s/2015/02/

Piss up to celebrate the latest Ashcroft poll by any chance?

[Roy Twing]

Yet another carcrash interview on Newsnight, this time Ed Balls

Apparently Ed Balls could only think of one business leader who is backing Labour's policies but couldn't remember his full name despite having dinner with him

His first name is Bill apparently!

Here's Ed Balls' carcrash

phpBB [video]

It certainly was a dire performance, - he started by criticising 'prevarication' regarding heathrow, then spent the next 5 minutes prevaricating about heathrow.

Not quite sure what happened at 8.07.

[colinthewarriormonkey]

Latest YouGov Scotland Poll

SNP 48%
Labour 27%

95% of SNP and 39% of Labour supporters think Sturgeon is doing a good job.

Sturgeon's approval rating amongst Labour supporters is -4 while Murphy's approval rating amongst SNP supporters is -54

67% of SNP voters say there is no chance they will change their minds before the election but only 50% of Labour supporters are so certain.

Overall, more than 90% of SNP supporters say it is extremely unlikely or there is no chance they will change their minds.

Bewtifaal, Beeky.


Still it's only a poll. Lots of hard work being done and to be done if the SNP are to win. Still reckon double digits is a good night for us and a jolly jig will be danced if so.

Some of these stats are terrible reading (for Labour) the further you delve in to that poll.

But what about the fact that with the fall in oil prices, Scotland would be utterly fucked right now ?

Does no one up there realise that you were lied to by the SNP and they nearly led you into a disaster?

[therealHJ]

Yet another carcrash interview on Newsnight, this time Ed Balls

Apparently Ed Balls could only think of one business leader who is backing Labour's policies but couldn't remember his full name despite having dinner with him

His first name is Bill apparently!

Here's Ed Balls' carcrash

phpBB [video]

It certainly was a dire performance, - he started by criticising 'prevarication' regarding heathrow, then spent the next 5 minutes prevaricating about heathrow.

Not quite sure what happened at 8.07.

Looks like Balls thinks he is going senile

[therealHJ]

Labour List think Scottish Labour is going down in flames and along with it Labour's chance of a majority

http://labourlist.org/2015/02/scottish- ... with-them/

That will be the Tory press waging a campaign .... oh wait a minute

[Steve Hunt]

Well, bugger me!

What a shock!: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31126283

Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, said: "Mr Osborne has perhaps not been quite such an austere Chancellor as either his own rhetoric or that of his critics might suggest.
"And he has cut departmental investment spending by only half as much as he originally planned.
"The public finances have a long way to go before they finally recover from the effects of the financial crisis.


The news that none of the big three want to really address. TBF, they have done a pretty good job at ignoring it.

[Ralph]

Looks like Balls thinks he is going senile

phpBB [video]

Looks like Osborne's up to his old tricks.

[Steve Hunt]

WHY HAVE EU CONTRIBUTIONS PUSHED UP UK BORROWING IN 2014?

The EU budget is an incredibly complex process. It is a maddening monster made up of many parts that are opaque and complex to even those working on it. If you want to read more about how our contributions to the budget work this blog is a great primer. The EU has a significant direct fiscal impact on family budgets, costing each UK household over £600 in 2013. Today, it has been revealed that contributions to the EU budget (including that famous £1.7bn bill) have pushed public sector borrowing figures up by £2.9bn in 2014 – hardly helpful for a Chancellor desperate to be seen as getting a grip of the public sector finances ahead of a general election.

Yet today’s revelations are mostly an accounting exercise. The UK did not physically hand over £2.9bn extra to the EU at the end of 2014 (talk about a costly Christmas!), but to keep the books balanced the bill was recorded in December by the accountants at the Office of National Statistics (ONS) as that is when the invoice arrived. We will eventually pay an extra £850m later this year. That is because, of the overall extra £2.9bn, the UK will be handed £1.2bn back as part of the whole adjustment process. That leaves the UK with an adjustment bill of £1.7bn to pay. Of that bill we will eventually get around £850m back thanks to the UK’s rebate, leaving the same amount again to be paid this September.

All of this makes it clear just how ludicrous the whole process is. Ultimately, to find out what the UK’s net contributions to the EU were in 2014, we will have to wait for the ONS Pink Book which is published much later this year. It is by far the best assessment of the direct fiscal costs of EU membership (don’t get me started on the regulatory cost!)

What we do know is that this size of our contributions have sky rocketed in recent years, driven by a growing UK economy, a Eurozone in decline, increases in the overall EU budget and of course the fact that Tony Blair gave away a huge chunk of our rebate – £10.4bn and rising – in return for empty promises of reform (sound familiar?).

This chart makes it pretty clear:



It is worth noting that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has predicted our contributions will fall in 2014 and beyond. Today’s numbers hint that this almost certainly won’t be the case for 2014. I’ve written before about why this claim doesn’t appear credible and many of the issues highlighted in that blog have been accentuated since. The UK’s economy will be stronger compared to the Eurozone than when the OBR made its forecast, and the EU’s 2014 budget has breached its in year ceilings and automatic increases to the overall seven year budget will increase later annual EU budgets despite the deal secured by David Cameron in 2013.

UKIP needs to highlight this as much as possible. I know the opposition will dismiss it because of the source, but the figures are from the ONS

[Ralph]

Don't worry cast iron Dave has promised a referendum on our membership of the EU. Meanwhile.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... fears.html

[Steve Hunt]

Don't worry cast iron Dave has promised a referendum on our membership of the EU. Meanwhile.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... fears.html

Indeed.

Any thoughts, HJ & birdie?

[therealHJ]

Turkey won't join EU Steve and Cam knows it

Central Europe countries will bvlock it and I suspect the Turkish government wouldn't want to do it

Little bit of realpolitik from DC